Colts Offense vs. Saints Defense
Peyton Manning leads the #2 pass offense in the league into Miami. He had a huge day in the AFC Championship game against the league's #1 defense. The Saints have the #26 pass defense and are #25 in overall defense. Last week, the Vikings gained 475 yards on this Saints D.
However, the Saints forced five turnovers. That is what they will have to do today to have a real chance. The problem is, Peyton Manning rarely makes mistakes. There was a lot of talk this week about Gregg Williams and the defense getting after Manning. The Jets D got to him a couple times last week but then he adjusted. I don't see the Saints reinventing the wheel to throw off Manning for an entire game. The Colts have so many weapons that Manning can avoid Jamie Sharper and go to Garcon or Collie or Clark. This offense is just very difficult to stop.
EDGE: Colts
Saints Offense vs. Colts Defense
Once again, offense should reign supreme here. The Saints have the league's best offense and the Colts defense, while better than the Saints, is still middle-of-the-pack. Whether or not Dwight Freeney plays has been the big storyline all week for the Colts D. But even if he does, I'm not sure he'll be at full strength. Either way, I think Raheem Brock is a suitable fill-in. The Colts pass defense is 14th in the league and will have to work to shut down the Saints WR corps.
I think Brees and the passing will be the main key but don't forget about the run game. The Saints average 131 yards per game on the ground, 6th best in the regular season. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush can play a big part in this game if they establish the run threat and open up Brees for big shots down the field.
EDGE: Saints
Special Teams
In Super Bowl XLI, Devin Hester returned the opening kickoff for a TD against the Colts. Again, the Colts will have to beware strong special teams on the opposing side. The Saints' Courtney Roby returned a kick 61 yards and Pierre Thomas 40 yards in OT against Minnesota. On punts, Reggie Bush is a dangerous weapon.
The Colts don't have the homerun threat for returns. But they do have a very dependable kicker in the grizzled veteran Matt Stover. He's 5-5 on playoff field goals. Garrett Hartley made the kick that sent the Saints to this game and has been reliable most of the time. However, two short missed kicks in clutch situations in the regular season, against Washington and Tampa Bay, make you worry.
EDGE: Saints
Coaching
It's the first time leading a squad to the Super Bowl for each head coach. Jim Caldwell is a rookie but he was there for Super Bowl XLI and groomed by Tony Dungy to do make this very trip. Sean Payton is an offensive mastermind but defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will have to create and be ready to adjust the gameplan of his life to win this game.
EDGE: Push
Overall
These two offenses are both extremely talented with great playmakers. However, throughout the season, this Saints defense has shown a propensity for giving up a lot of points. I'm not sure that getting in a shootout with Peyton Manning is the best course for them. I think this game will take a while to find its footing, and similar to Super Bowl XXXVIII between the Patriots and Panthers, will see a couple of quarters with a lot of big plays. I expect New Orleans to come out with a ton of energy and slow Manning down at first. It will be relatively close at the half but Manning will adjust in the second half and pull away with a lead the Saints cannot overcome.
Prediction: Colts 38, Saints 28
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