It counted- and the NL got home-field advantage. You may have watched or just taken a three-day respite from baseball but at any rate, the All-Star break is over and it's time for the second half. That can only mean it's also time for some predictions to look back at come October and say wow, those were really stupid but one was really good, so I'll do them again next year!
- The Yankees and Red Sox will go down to the wire for the AL East
- They will not determine a division winner until their final series in the Bronx September 23-25. Both teams will cautiously play starters though as the division loser has already clinched the Wild Card (so much for heated pennant races).
- But the Yankees won’t have the pitching to get to the World Series
- While it has been a very strong first half for a cobbled together back end of the rotation, you have to wonder if Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia are going to pitch that good all season. They are fourth and fifth starters and solid rookie Ivan Nova is waiting in the minors but the Yankees cannot afford them to implode with Phil Hughes an uncertainty too. At the end of the day though the Yankees’ frontline starters are going to have trouble matching up come playoff time. A first round matchup with whoever wins the AL West would be very dicey. Texas can out-hit the Yankees and in a short series with the Angels I take Weaver/Haren/Santana over Sabathia/Burtnett/Hughes or Colon or Garcia (?). Sabathia alone cannot carry the Yankees to a World Series. Andy Pettitte was the second dependable playoff starter and without him, I think the Yankees will have an uphill battle come playoff time.
- The currently fourth place Twins will win the AL Central
- No, not the Tigers or surprising Indians who have been battling it out through the first half. The Twins are 24-11 since getting off to a putrid 17-37 start. They’ve also been doing it while battling a rash of injuries. Jason Kubel, Delmon Young, Denard Span and Justin Morneau will all be back soon or sometime this summer and can only make them stronger. Pitching will propel the Twins over a Detroit team that lacks strong pitching outside Verlander and a young Indians team with 14 walkoff wins that is due to come down to earth.
- The Pirates will finish over .500….but won’t make the playoffs
- They’ve been one of the first half’s best stories, with exciting young players like Andrew McCutchen, Joel Hanrahan and Jose Tabata. Last year at this time, they were 30-58. Right now, they’re 47-43 and a game out in the NL Central. However, the Brewers and Cardinals will prove to be too strong and both will finish ahead of a Pirates team that finishes with 83 wins, breaking the 18-year under .500 streak
- Neither Jair Jurrjens or Jered Weaver will finish with sub 2.00 ERAs
- In the past two decades, there have been seven seasons when a pitcher has done that. It’s a feat accomplished by just five pitchers in that time. Both have been incredible in the first half but the dog days of summer will lead to a few blowups and rising ERAs. In fact, I think it is Justin Verlander, 2.15 ERA at the break and a 0.84 ERA since June, who has the best shot.
- Both Matt Kemp and Jose Bautista will fall off some
- They were arguably the two best in their respective leagues in the first half. Each will still finish with excellent numbers and top three in MVP voting but on teams that aren’t that good, without much support in the lineup, they will not be able to surpass stars on playoff contenders.
Playoff Picks
ALDS
Red Sox defeat Twins
Angels defeat Yankees
NLDS
Phillies defeat Brewers
Braves defeat Giants
ALCS
Red Sox defeat Angels
NLCS
Phillies defeat Braves
World Series
Phillies defeat Red Sox in 6
Awards
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
NL MVP: Prince Fielder
AL Manager of the Year: Ron Gardenhire
NL Manager of the Year: Clint Hurdle
AL Rookie of the Year: Michael Pineda
NL Rookie of the Year: Craig Kimbrel
No comments:
Post a Comment