Friday, September 30, 2011

Big game one in the Bronx and MLB postseason picks

Two aces square off on the mound in game one of the ALDS between the Yankees and Tigers tonight. Justin Verlander, AL Triple Crown winner, had a tremendous season and the buzzword from analysts is that he has "evolved." The Tigers sure better hope so.  

Verlander's only previous postseason experience was in 2006, as a rookie, where he compiled a 5.82 ERA. The Tigers' record is 25-9 in games Verlander has started. That means without him on the mound they're 70-58, above .500 but nowhere near as successful. The next three Detroit starters will be Doug Fister, then Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, who have 4+ ERAs. 

Yes, the Yankees have question marks with Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia on the mound following CC Sabathia but they are not as large as Detroit's. With the plan to not use Verlander again until a potential game five, a game one win is vital to Detroit's livelihood in this series. 

MLB Postseason Picks

ALDS: Yankees in 4, Rangers in 5
NLDS: Phillies in 4, Brewers in 5

ALCS: Rangers in 5
NLCS: Brewers in 6

World Series: Brewers in 6 

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Defying Baseball Reason: The Closest Race on the Great Final Day

One strike—that’s how slim a margin it was in deciding the American League wild card.

The Red Sox, 77-0 when leading after eight innings, just one strike away from, at the least, sealing one more game. A win looked all but certain for the Sox with their pit bull Papelbon on the mound just waiting to deal the final blow to the border terrier Orioles.

The Rays, down 7-0 after seven lifeless innings, holding onto their last breath of life after cutting the deficit to one an inning before. A loss looked all but certain, the Rays with Dan Johnson and his .108 batting average in the batter’s box. 

The odds could not have been more stacked in the Red Sox’s favor and against the Rays. Yet, in both cases, they were defied.

Nolan Reimold belts a Papelbon strike into right-center, Orioles 3, Red Sox 3.

Dan Johnson, DAN JOHNSON, serves one over the right field wall, Rays 7, Yankees 7.

Suddenly, all was even between two teams, who are anything but that. $120 million dollars in payroll and 120 million miles in preseason hype separate them. But after 161 games and 26 outs, the slate was square. No matter what else separates them, both Boston and Tampa Bay faced the same opportunity last night, just before midnight—and fared vastly differently.

As September 29th began, their fates crossed over the course of just a few minutes.

12:03 Robert Andino lines Papelbon's pitch into shallow left, former Ray Carl Crawford can’t come down with it and Reimold beats his throw to the plate. Game over. Orioles 4, Red Sox 3.

12:06 Evan Longoria lines a homerun reminiscent of Mark McGwire’s record-breaking 62nd over the left field corner wall. Rays 8, Yankees 7, in 12 innings.

The foghorn bellowing and frenzy erupting at the Trop was the Red Sox’s wake-up alarm. The past month was the Sox’s version of a nightmare where you’re being chased, keep stumbling but getting away, holding onto life until BOOM, BOOM, just like that two gunshots to the chest and you’re jolted out of your sleep with a shiver of sheer terror.

Unlike a nightmare, all of which you usually have a tough time remembering, the Red Sox will have trouble forgetting any of this 7-20 September collapse. All the expectations and what seemed a certain playoff berth eroded, until there was no more. My Sox-fan friend, Jordan, called the whole month “a stab wound to the gut that bled out slowly.”

However, it’s fascinating that after all the misery and disaster that hovered over Yawkey Way for the season’s final stretch, the 2011 Boston Red Sox still had a greater probability of holding on until those final, quick dying moments. Some might say it wasn’t a fair fight. The Yankees trotted out a Bad News Bears pitching staff of September call-ups and bottom of the barrel relievers. That assertion’s correct, but the Orioles are a 90-loss team who Boston could win only two of seven games against in the final ten days of its season. 

All that said though, one final Jonathan Papelbon strike to Nolan Reimold and we’re trying to figure out who the Red Sox will start today in a one-game playoff in St. Pete.  Add on a strike three to Dan Johnson and the Red Sox are booking their trip to Texas. That’s how close it was. In a race that will go down as decided by one game in the standings, the real margin of difference, just a couple pitches.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

College Athletics: A New Age Pangaea


Pangaea: a supercontinent believed to have once connected nearly all of the earth’s landmasses together.

A concept we learned about in some history class in grade school, pangaea occurred some 300 to 200 million years ago. That’s a long time ago. Yet, somehow one of sports’ biggest entities, NCAA Division I athletics, is going backward, reverting to a Pangaea of its own after years of separation.

The age of superconferences is rapidly coming full steam ahead. The Pac-10 and Big 10 expansion was just the beginning, as most of us knew. Syracuse and Pittsburgh are the latest jumpers, bringing a Northeastern flair to Tobacco Road. But as evolution and natural phases of the earth broke up a large mass, college football is bucking that process- and it sure as heck doesn’t feel natural.

When that one large continent broke into a bunch of different ones, they developed their own cultures, ways of life based on unique factors like geography. College athletics’ unnaturally greedy presidents and conference commissioners are doing just the opposite, bringing their geographically misaligned, culturally different entities together.

Conferences are going from 10 to 12 to 14 and there’s no reason to think they’ll stop there. Decision makers in college athletics now act under the pretense that bigger means better and the grass is always greener on the other side. But as we all know, those clichés are often quite false.

As we move closer to the age of the superconference dawning, the traditions that those in power claim to so badly cling to are on the brink of being all but erased. Syracuse is leaving the Big East. The Orange are Big East basketball, a founding member in 1979 and the life-blood of the conference’s rivalries.

So much for those traditions. No more Georgetown vs. Syracuse games that draw the Carrier Dome’s biggest crowds and most fervent ire.

It’s cafeteria traditionalism in college athletics. We’re told the antiquated BCS and bowl system must be preserved because they are so deeply woven into the fabric of college football.


Please, let’s cut the B.S. Just be honest with fans and observers. Your system is driven by one factor, the ever-powerful dollar sign. Each and every year we hear nonsense about how the bowl system is so seeped in tradition. Because when you think of years and years of college football history the TicketCity or Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl are the first images that come to mind.

Even the games that actually do hold onto some of their tradition are going to see it washed away. Nebraska vs. Oklahoma, a possible superconference Rose Bowl, is a Big 12 Championship game, not the traditional Big 10/Pac 10 matchup that purists want to preserve.

ACC Commissioner John Swafford said about the latest additions:

"We just felt that right now this was in our best interest," Swofford said. "I don't think it's really a reaction to that, although in a subtle way, when you look over the past year or so and see the movement with the Pac-12 that could potentially have gone further, the Big Ten expanded, the SEC expanding, that all comes into play -- not necessarily in a measurable kind of way, but our interest is always about what's best for us."

To make that more concise for you: we’ll make more money. All the verbose language spewed out at these expansion press conferences is a façade for that one motivating factor. Lost in all that verbiage is that the real loser in this process is college basketball.

The NCAA Tournament is about to lose some of its novelty when an Elite 8 has six teams from the same conference, the cachet of unfamiliar opponents evaporated. Big East basketball as we knew it is all but dead. Four of the most exciting back-to-back days on the hardwood at the Garden, which have produced some of the sport’s most memorable moments (see: Syracuse/UConn 6OT), are about to become a shell of their former self.

More notably, though, is one of the major reasons Syracuse and Pittsburgh left the Big East and UConn and Rutgers may be next.

It got too big.

"The Big East has too many good teams, is too big and 18 [conference] games . . . is way too many games to play. And when we add two more schools, that's going to be fun -- a 20-game schedule,” said UConn head coach John Calhoun in a post-game press conference this past season.

That’s right…too big. A conference is about to breakup, just as the Pangaea did, because it was just too damn big. The backwards part of it all is that the really big Big East didn’t work but everyone is following that lead.

The college athletics Pangaea is forming and nothing’s going to stop it. So get ready for some eye-popping conference showdowns like Boise State vs. South Florida- in the Big East. Unusual potential bedfellows in an unnatural evolution.

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Instant classic? Oh, please

Following the wild final 72 seconds of Michigan/Notre Dame, Brent Musburger told us, “Folks, you have just seen an instant classic.”

But pretend it wasn’t Michigan and Notre Dame on the jerseys. Two unranked teams spent the game's most crucial moments unable to cover receivers, tackle ball carriers or pull together any semblance of defense. They turned the ball over a combined eight times. Game “hero” Denard Robinson completed less than half of his passes. Notre Dame just self-destructed once more than the Wolverines.

If you wanna talk classic, let’s change the scene to Flushing Meadows, where Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer dueled in a five-set titanic struggle of a semifinal at the U.S. Open. The game’s best right now against arguably its best ever. Their quality of play matched their reputation. It wasn’t made exciting because one man made enough unforced errors to keep the other alive.

No, it was Djokovic saving a match point with an incredible return winner, then saving another and completing a two-set down comeback. Unlike Michigan’s big comeback, Djokovic’s wasn’t a result of the opponent’s self-destruction. Federer exhibited the level of tennis that makes him a legend. In contrast to the big finish at the Big House, excitement was precipitated by greatness, not mediocrity, being amplified.

Sure, Denard Robinson found Jeremy Gallon for what became a 64-yard completion and run after the catch. But there wasn’t a Notre Dame defender near him. Then, on the subsequent game-winning touchdown, the Irish corner committed pass interference but was unable to prevent Roy Roundtree from catching the ball in doing so.

Michigan and Notre Dame have the name recognition, the prestige of storied histories. The atmosphere in the first night game at the Big House looked just electric, one hundred thousand fans in maize sticking around well after the final play. It’s just unfortunate that the day’s most epic action was buried twenty minutes into SportsCenter. Take a step back and you’ll realize that for all the wild antics of Wolverines/Irish it was a second week game between teams who have a lot more problems than pluses right now.

Djokovic and Federer, the world number one and three, delivered epic theatre in a semifinal of a grand slam. When we’re taking classics, that’s one that will stand the test of time.

Friday, September 9, 2011

Missing Manning

There are some athletes who you may not root for but are so ingrained in the fabric of their sport’s cloth that their absence leaves a glaring hole.

For the past 208 games, Peyton Manning has been a fixture, the guy who incessantly audibles and excessively wins games. The Colts have been in the playoffs nine straight years. 

Now, their leader Manning has undergone more neck surgery and is out indefinitely. He may not play this season and that’s unfortunate not only for the Colts but the NFL as a whole. 

No position has as big of an impact on a team as the quarterback. Injuries to the starter under center are the most demoralizing, especially when he’s also the best player on your team.

When Tom Brady went down with a knee injury and was lost for the season, the Patriots turned to the inexperienced Matt Cassel. They still finished 11-5. The Colts must now try to win without their leader to keep their streak of consistent excellence alive.

The replacement…Kerry Collins, an adequate quarterback with a lot of experience. He’s been to a Super Bowl and is second to Manning among active quarterbacks in passing yards, completions and attempts. The 2008 Patriots exceeded what teams who lose their starting quarterback tend to do. But there are examples of success and lack of that.

Last year, the Cowboys struggled immensely without Tony Romo in the lineup (they also had lots of other issues including a head coach who was not meant to be more than a coordinator). Then you have the 1999 Jets, who lost Vinny Testaverde in week one and seemed doomed. While it took awhile to figure out the right replacement, Ray Lucas eventually turned out to be that and the Jets finished a respectable 8-8.

The Colts already have their replacement set and he is anything but raw. The real issue for them won’t be Collins but him just expounding a number of other problems including a weak rushing offense and defense.

Manning under center is akin to a symphony on stage. Improvisation that’s never predictable but precision in doing so that rarely fails. You sit back and soak it in. You know you’re watching a legend, one good enough to mask deficiencies with his incredible play. His late-game prowess wins games that otherwise might go in the loss column.

That’s not going to happen with Collins. The Colts may not be as bad as some experts think, a three or four win team. They’re not a playoff team with Collins either though.

They’ll be slightly below average, a five to seven win bunch. That means the best rivalry of the past decade, Colts/Pats, isn’t gonna be the same and may be nearing an end.

There’s no way to quantify the totality Manning’s loss will have on the league. It’s gonna be weird watching a Colts highlight and not seeing Peyton Manning connecting with Reggie Wayne or Dallas Clark or even Blair White. You may not even know White's name if not for Manning. He’s a special player in that he makes those around him better.

The NFL’s a product that is in no danger of suffering anytime soon.  Ratings for last night’s season opener were even better than 2010. But there will be a void. It’s like going back to school when a friend graduates. Just as a campus and buildings remain the same, the Colts will still be in all white, horseshoe on helmet, playing in Lucas Oil Stadium. It just won’t be quite the same sans Manning.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

2011 NFL Season Predictions

We've survived the lockout, watched all the preseason football any fan can reasonably endure and finished fantasy drafts. All that's left now is for the season to kickoff. It's an intriguing opening matchup with the past two Super Bowl champs squaring off at Lambeau. But that's just game one. What does the rest of the season hold? I'll throw my hat into the ring here in the annual season predictions derby. 

I mean, if an elephant and octopus can pick so well, I should be able to...right?


AFC EAST
Patriots 13-3
Jets 10-6
Bills 6-10
Dolphins 6-10


AFC NORTH
Ravens 12-4
Steelers 11-5
Browns 7-9
Bengals 3-13


AFC SOUTH
Texans 11-5
Titans 9-7
Colts 7-9
Jaguars 6-10


AFC WEST
Chargers 11-5
Broncos 8-8
Raiders 6-10
Chiefs 5-11


NFC EAST
Eagles 12-4
Cowboys 9-7
Giants 7-9
Redskins 6-10


NFC NORTH 
Packers 13-3
Lions 8-8
Bears 6-10
Vikings 5-11


NFC SOUTH
Saints 12-4
Bucs 10-6
Falcons 9-7
Panthers 3-13


NFC WEST
Cardinals 9-7
Rams 7-9
49ers 6-10
Seahawks 4-12


PLAYOFFS

WILD CARD WEEKEND 
6 Jets over 3 Chargers
4 Texans over 5 Steelers


3 Saints over 6 Cowboys
5 Bucs over 4 Cardinals


DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
1 Patriots over 6 Jets
2 Ravens over 4 Texans


1 Packers over 5 Bucs 
3 Saints over 2 Eagles


AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
2 Ravens over 1 Patriots


NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
3 Saints over 1 Packers


SUPER BOWL XLVI
Saints 30, Ravens 17

Coach of the Year: John Harbaugh
MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Offensive ROY: Julio Jones
Defensive ROY: Von Miller