NFL championship games show sports fans need greater perspective

Sunday, the Ravens' Billy Cundiff and 49ers' Kyle Williams joined the likes of Scott Norwood, Bill Buckner and Greg Norman in the club of infamous chokes in big moments. 

Cundiff's missed 32-yard FG at the end of regulation and Williams' punt handling issues cost their respective teams trips to the most hallowed of sports stages, the Super Bowl. No doubt they missed up -- and did it with a lot of people watching. 

But Cundiff and Williams receiving death threats -- tweets so filled with vitriol they sound more like something to be spewed at a dictator than professional football player -- are absolutely uncalled for. 

Diehard fans devote a lot of time and energy to their teams. They're passionate and that's a good thing. You should care about your team and want to see them win championships. I love rooting for my teams and get angry when they mess up. It's natural. When Doug Brien missed two potential game-winning field goals in the 2004 playoffs against the Steelers I never wanted to see him in a Jets uniform again. I also didn't have a need to send him a death threat. 

In the aftermath of Sunday's Championship games, some fans were so compelled to take to Twitter and post wildly outrageous threats, stuff like this:

@KyleWilliams_10 I hope you, youre wife, kids and family die, you deserve it - @javpasquel

BreakingNews: Death warrant for Billy Cundiff, wanted Dead or alive... - @IAMDJBUNK

I'm not naive enough to say it's 'just a football game' and totally discount these games as meaningless. Sports mean a lot to many people. When 50 million people are all watching the same thing in this age of segmented viewing, as they were the Giants/49ers game Sunday night, it takes on a great cultural significance. 

The problem is that some people push it too far, go to extremes that are absolutely unnecessary. Too often in many spheres, not just sports, we get caught in the moment, unable to grasp the bigger picture. Perspective is lost in the heat of emotions, which is natural, but somewhere along the way it needs to be gained again.  

Sports bringing out emotions in people is nothing new. Players and coaches have brawled, bawled and balled for centuries. It just seems like lately fans are pushing it too far.

Fans like those in San Francisco who weren't just cheering on their teams in a preseason game between the 49ers and Raiders but shooting in the parking lot and brawling in the stands. Three were hospitalized following the incidents.

Then there's the case of Bryan Stow, a San Francisco Giants fan, a father of two, beaten so badly by a couple Dodgers fans he ended up in a coma. Stow suffered a traumatic brain injury and couldn't speak for months. 

That's disturbing action, unacceptable no matter the issue. Sports should be getting people excited, acting as an escape from some of life's greater problems, not creating life-threatening ones.

Getting riled up, taunting players, vehemently cheering is all part of being a fan. Threatening others and being violent is not. 

Being angry about the Ravens or 49ers missing the Super Bowl is fine. So is not wanting to see Billy Cundiff or Kyle Williams' face for a few months. Sports change people's lives, many times for the better, but in the case of goats, for the worse. There's no stopping that. Let's just keep it in perspective. 

NFL Conference Championship Preview and Picks

One game away. The ultimate goal is so close for the four remaining NFL contenders. The two conference championships present teams with different preseason expectations. Both New England and Baltimore in the AFC were playoff and Super Bowl prognostications by many. The NFC's final two, San Francisco and New York, were playoff afterthoughts. 

Which two will head to Indianapolis and Super Bowl XLVI?

AFC Championship: Ravens at Patriots
Whaddya know...Tom Brady in his sixth conference championship in 12 seasons. There's no denying Brady has created a benchmark of both consistent winning and exemplary statistics for the modern quarterback. He undoubtedly has to be in the discussion for best ever. To reach his fifth Super Bowl, Brady will have to beat the perennially stout Ravens defense. While the Ravens forced three interceptions from rookie QB T.J. Yates last week, they recorded no sacks. The Giants showed in Super Bowl XLII that the blueprint for minimizing Brady's impact is pressuring him, so the Ravens will need to do that. 

Offensively for Baltimore, Joe Flacco has had ups and downs. He was called out by teammate Ed Reed this week. He faces a Patriots secondary that has been vulnerable all season due to numerous injuries. But you have to wonder if he can exploit that. A key factor will be the play of rookie Torrey Smith. Last week, Smith caught just one pass for nine yards. Smith can stretch the field and use his speed to create big gains, so the Ravens need to find a way to get him involved. 

It's tempting to pick the Ravens, following the mantra of 'defense wins championships.' However, it just feels like it's Belichick and Brady's turn again. While they haven't recorded any real signature wins yet this season, the defense has come to play when needed, like last week.  

The Ravens are 13-4 this season (including the win over Houston last week) but just 4-4 away from home. The Patriots are 4-0 in home conference championship games. It's difficult to imagine that spotless record becoming blemished.

Prediction: Patriots 37, Ravens 24

 NFC Championship: Giants at 49ers
It's again a matchup of Super Bowl winning vs. maligned quarterback on the NFC side. Most had written off Alex Smith as another first pick quarterback bust. He has proved his doubters wrong, emphatically sending a statement by outdoing Drew Brees in last week's instant classic 36-32 win. It was truly shocking seeing Smith channel the great 49ers QBs of yesteryear. 

That said, this is not your grandpa's or even dad's 49ers. Jerry Rice isn't walking out of the locker room. While Smith was phenomenal against the Saints, make no mistake that the Niners are predicated on running the ball and playing strong defense. Also, don't question the lethal nature of that defense. It is for real, especially against the run. 

At one time Eli Manning was the quarterback many questioned. Now, he has emerged as one of the game's top five, a Super Bowl winner and bonafide big game winner. Manning threw for more than 300 yards against the 49ers in the regular season and will have to again as it will be difficult to establish a solid run game.

Vernon Davis was a huge factor in last week's win and is the core weapon in the Niners' passing game. Look for the Giants, who struggled early on in the season against tight ends while playing zone, to try to suffocate Davis with man coverage. Shutting off Davis will then give time to the Giants' ferocious front four to fluster Smith.

San Francisco thrives on turnovers, five against the Saints and two picks of Eli Manning in the week 10 matchup. The Giants defense is fueled by the pass rush creating problems for the quarterback. Each of these strong units will create problems for the offense and winning the turnover battle will be key. 

It may be similar to the 1991 NFC Championship these two franchises played, which the Giants won 15-13 on a Matt Bahr game-winning field goal. Again, it will come down to the final minutes as these teams have an affinity for close games. However, with overtime looking possible, it will be the Giants, led by Manning, that advance to Indy with a game-winning field goal.  

Prediction: Giants 20, 49ers 17

NFL Divisional Playoffs Preview and Picks

Tebowie, my friends

My friend Michael Garr tweeted following last week's games "NFL Playoffs: Chalk"

Accurate. 

All four higher seeds advanced, though Denver was an underdog winner against Pittsburgh. It's a new week with more great matchups and time to see if I can better my 2-2 record. 

Saints at 49ers
A classic contrasting styles duel. Saints with their number one offense, 49ers a top five defense. Problem for the 49ers...their defensive strength (#1 rush defense) does not combat New Orleans' offensive (#1 pass offense). In fact, the 49ers were mid-pack when it came to defending the pass this season. 

That won't be good enough to stymie Drew Brees and his weapons. To have a chance it's all about bend but don't break for the Niners defense. They do it well, 4th best in red zone defense this season. However, if the Saints don't score before they hit the 20, they usually do once inside it, converting 59 percent of the time. If San Francisco's stingy defense can hold New Orleans to field goals rather than touchdowns, they'll have a chance. But there's no way that Alex Smith can keep up with Brees in a shootout. San Francisco will hold strong defensively for awhile until Brees breaks it open late. 

Prediction: Saints 27, 49ers 17

Broncos at Patriots
Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow. Okay, just had to get that out of the way. 

In all seriousness what the Broncos and Tebow did last week was pretty damn impressive. Yes, Pittsburgh was banged up but it's hard to hate on Tebow's 316 yard performance complete with game-winning strike to Demaryius Thomas on the first play of overtime. I call it the 'Saint and the Stiff Arm.'

New England hasn't won a playoff game since the 2007 AFC Championship game. Some are starting to wonder if Brady and Belichick are no longer invincible, playoff gods that they once appeared. I'm not betting against them. 

A weak Patriots secondary can certainly be exploited by Tebow but most of his magic has come a mile high. This week it will be a bitter end in the bitter evening cold of Foxboro.


Prediction: Patriots 34, Broncos 27

Texans at Ravens
The least exciting divisional playoff matchup. Rookie QB T.J. Yates has to do battle with the fearsome Ravens defense. That alone is a recipe for disaster. 

Houston's defense created a lot of havoc and problems for Andy Dalton last week and will need to do the same to Joe Flacco. But it won't be their defense that causes their first playoff run to come to an end. Instead it will be the Ravens defense, which held Arian Foster under 50 yards rushing and kept the Texans (with Matt Schaub starting) scoreless for 21 minutes in their regular season contest, that is the deciding factor. Ray Lewis, that defense, the deafening M&T Bank Stadium crowd, it's all gonna be way too much for Yates. Foster gets shutdown early, Yates is forced to throw, trouble ensues, Ravens advance.


Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 6

Giants at Packers  
Ahh, they meet again. It's a rematch of the classic 2007 NFC Championship game. This time Tom Coughlin may want to invest in a ski mask or some face cream.  

Aaron Rodgers has been simply phenomenal, 45 touchdowns to six interceptions this season. The Packers get everyone involved with plenty of damaging weapons from Jordy Nelson to Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley, Randall Cobb and James Jones. Eli Manning can create some high octane offense of his own with Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks.

Their regular season contest was close and high scoring. These are two bottom five pass defenses and Lambeau in January or not I expect the passing game to rule. While the Giants' pass rush is menacing, the Packers have had time to prepare for it. Don't expect New York to make Rodgers and company look as silly as they did Ryan and the Falcons last week. 

In Jersey, Rodgers had the ball in the final minute with the game on the line and a shot at the win. He led the Packers into position for a game-winning field goal. This time it will be Manning in that spot-- except his night will end with the ball in the hands of a Packers defender.

Prediction: Packers 27, Giants 23  

NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview and Picks

It's the first post of 2012 on this blog, so happy new year! Week 17 was the week of lose and still get in for AFC playoff contenders with berths on the line. No more of that as it's now do or die time. Wild card weekend has rookie QBs, Super Bowl QBs and oh yeah, some guy named Tim Tebow (heard of him?). Here are my picks for this weekend and projections through Super Bowl XLVI (preview: sticking with my preseason SB pick)... 

Bengals at Texans
No one, and I mean no one, predicted Andy Dalton and T.J. Yates would be getting set to battle in the first playoff game of 2012. Heck, no one expected Yates to get off the bench. The Texans thrive on their strong rushing attack with Arian Foster and Ben Tate and a rejuvenated defense under Wade Phillips. The Bengals have exceeded expectations this season but are 0-7 against playoff teams. 

It came down to the wire when these two teams met a few weeks ago in Cincinnati but T.J. Yates led a game-winning drive culminating in a touchdown with two seconds left. The Bengals will have a shot at the end but Houston's defense will stand strong and ensure a second playoff game in the franchise's history next week. 

Prediction: Texans 20, Bengals 14

Lions at Saints
Last season, the Saints were heavy wild card favorites heading to Seattle to face the 7-9 NFC West winners-- and lost. However, this time around the Saints open the playoffs in the comfortable confines of the Superdome where they have not lost all season. Drew Brees has been wildly efficient en route to breaking Dan Marino's single season passing yards record. He tore up the Detroit secondary in a 34-17 week 12 win. 

The Lions have a strong front seven that will need to rattle Brees. Limiting mistakes will also be key, as they racked up the third most penalties per game in game in the regular season. It has been a great a season for the Lions and the future looks promising but even the dynamic Detroit offense will be unable to match Brees and the prolific Saints in a shootout.

Prediction: Saints 41, Lions 24

Falcons at Giants
Year in and year out, there is no team more difficult to predict than the Giants. At times this season they've looked like Super Bowl contenders and at others like a team overmatched against the NFL's bottom half. Atlanta is no stranger to playoff disappointment, falling to eventual champion Green Bay last season in the divisional playoffs as the NFC's number one seed. 


Wins against the crosstown rival Jets and division foe Dallas have the Giants riding an emotional high. But for a team so inconsistent you have to wonder if it will come crashing down. Eli Manning has had a great season overall but you can't overlook weak performances in two of the last three weeks, 9/27 passing against the Jets and three picks facing the Redskins. 


If Atlanta can establish the run with Michael Turner opening the passing game for Matt Ryan and the Falcons explosive WR corps, a susceptible Giants defense will be exposed. I have seen the Coughlin era Giants come out flat way too many times at home to pick them in this game. 

Prediction: Falcons 31, Giants 16 

Steelers at Broncos
If you think this is going to be a blowout or an absolute joke, I think you're wrong. Yes, the Broncos have lost their last three with a stagnant offense led by the struggling Tim Tebow. But the Steelers are banged up too. Big Ben's limping around, Rashard Mendenhall is out for the season and Ryan Clark can't play in the thin Denver air. 

The Steelers are 8.5 point favorites but neither of these teams' styles lead you to believe this game will get outlandish. Since their week six bye, seven of Denver's games have been decided by a touchdown or less. In the past six weeks, the Steelers have notched 13-9 wins over the Browns and Chiefs. Close games but wins. 

John Fox will play the kind of game he wants, one where the offense plays it close to the vest and relies on the defense, which will keep it close. However without defensive lynchpin Brian Dawkins, the Broncos will not be able to contain the Steelers enough. Don't be surprised if Tim Tebow has the ball with a chance at victory in the final minutes though. That's just how it goes this season.  

Prediction: Steelers 17, Broncos 12

Full Playoff Picks

Divisional Playoffs
Ravens over Texans
Steelers over Patriots
Packers over Falcons
Saints over Niners 

AFC Championship
Ravens over Steelers

NFC Championship
Saints over Packers

Super Bowl XLVI
Saints 30, Ravens 17