Which two will head to Indianapolis and Super Bowl XLVI?
AFC Championship: Ravens at Patriots
Whaddya know...Tom Brady in his sixth conference championship in 12 seasons. There's no denying Brady has created a benchmark of both consistent winning and exemplary statistics for the modern quarterback. He undoubtedly has to be in the discussion for best ever. To reach his fifth Super Bowl, Brady will have to beat the perennially stout Ravens defense. While the Ravens forced three interceptions from rookie QB T.J. Yates last week, they recorded no sacks. The Giants showed in Super Bowl XLII that the blueprint for minimizing Brady's impact is pressuring him, so the Ravens will need to do that.
Offensively for Baltimore, Joe Flacco has had ups and downs. He was called out by teammate Ed Reed this week. He faces a Patriots secondary that has been vulnerable all season due to numerous injuries. But you have to wonder if he can exploit that. A key factor will be the play of rookie Torrey Smith. Last week, Smith caught just one pass for nine yards. Smith can stretch the field and use his speed to create big gains, so the Ravens need to find a way to get him involved.
It's tempting to pick the Ravens, following the mantra of 'defense wins championships.' However, it just feels like it's Belichick and Brady's turn again. While they haven't recorded any real signature wins yet this season, the defense has come to play when needed, like last week.
The Ravens are 13-4 this season (including the win over Houston last week) but just 4-4 away from home. The Patriots are 4-0 in home conference championship games. It's difficult to imagine that spotless record becoming blemished.
Prediction: Patriots 37, Ravens 24
NFC Championship: Giants at 49ers
It's again a matchup of Super Bowl winning vs. maligned quarterback on the NFC side. Most had written off Alex Smith as another first pick quarterback bust. He has proved his doubters wrong, emphatically sending a statement by outdoing Drew Brees in last week's instant classic 36-32 win. It was truly shocking seeing Smith channel the great 49ers QBs of yesteryear.
That said, this is not your grandpa's or even dad's 49ers. Jerry Rice isn't walking out of the locker room. While Smith was phenomenal against the Saints, make no mistake that the Niners are predicated on running the ball and playing strong defense. Also, don't question the lethal nature of that defense. It is for real, especially against the run.
At one time Eli Manning was the quarterback many questioned. Now, he has emerged as one of the game's top five, a Super Bowl winner and bonafide big game winner. Manning threw for more than 300 yards against the 49ers in the regular season and will have to again as it will be difficult to establish a solid run game.
Vernon Davis was a huge factor in last week's win and is the core weapon in the Niners' passing game. Look for the Giants, who struggled early on in the season against tight ends while playing zone, to try to suffocate Davis with man coverage. Shutting off Davis will then give time to the Giants' ferocious front four to fluster Smith.
San Francisco thrives on turnovers, five against the Saints and two picks of Eli Manning in the week 10 matchup. The Giants defense is fueled by the pass rush creating problems for the quarterback. Each of these strong units will create problems for the offense and winning the turnover battle will be key.
It may be similar to the 1991 NFC Championship these two franchises played, which the Giants won 15-13 on a Matt Bahr game-winning field goal. Again, it will come down to the final minutes as these teams have an affinity for close games. However, with overtime looking possible, it will be the Giants, led by Manning, that advance to Indy with a game-winning field goal.
Prediction: Giants 20, 49ers 17
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