It's the first post of 2012 on this blog, so happy new year! Week 17 was the week of lose and still get in for AFC playoff contenders with berths on the line. No more of that as it's now do or die time. Wild card weekend has rookie QBs, Super Bowl QBs and oh yeah, some guy named Tim Tebow (heard of him?). Here are my picks for this weekend and projections through Super Bowl XLVI (preview: sticking with my preseason SB pick)...
Bengals at Texans
No one, and I mean no one, predicted Andy Dalton and T.J. Yates would be getting set to battle in the first playoff game of 2012. Heck, no one expected Yates to get off the bench. The Texans thrive on their strong rushing attack with Arian Foster and Ben Tate and a rejuvenated defense under Wade Phillips. The Bengals have exceeded expectations this season but are 0-7 against playoff teams.
It came down to the wire when these two teams met a few weeks ago in Cincinnati but T.J. Yates led a game-winning drive culminating in a touchdown with two seconds left. The Bengals will have a shot at the end but Houston's defense will stand strong and ensure a second playoff game in the franchise's history next week.
Prediction: Texans 20, Bengals 14
Lions at Saints
Last season, the Saints were heavy wild card favorites heading to Seattle to face the 7-9 NFC West winners-- and lost. However, this time around the Saints open the playoffs in the comfortable confines of the Superdome where they have not lost all season. Drew Brees has been wildly efficient en route to breaking Dan Marino's single season passing yards record. He tore up the Detroit secondary in a 34-17 week 12 win.
The Lions have a strong front seven that will need to rattle Brees. Limiting mistakes will also be key, as they racked up the third most penalties per game in game in the regular season. It has been a great a season for the Lions and the future looks promising but even the dynamic Detroit offense will be unable to match Brees and the prolific Saints in a shootout.
Prediction: Saints 41, Lions 24
Falcons at Giants
Year in and year out, there is no team more difficult to predict than the Giants. At times this season they've looked like Super Bowl contenders and at others like a team overmatched against the NFL's bottom half. Atlanta is no stranger to playoff disappointment, falling to eventual champion Green Bay last season in the divisional playoffs as the NFC's number one seed.
Wins against the crosstown rival Jets and division foe Dallas have the Giants riding an emotional high. But for a team so inconsistent you have to wonder if it will come crashing down. Eli Manning has had a great season overall but you can't overlook weak performances in two of the last three weeks, 9/27 passing against the Jets and three picks facing the Redskins.
If Atlanta can establish the run with Michael Turner opening the passing game for Matt Ryan and the Falcons explosive WR corps, a susceptible Giants defense will be exposed. I have seen the Coughlin era Giants come out flat way too many times at home to pick them in this game.
Prediction: Falcons 31, Giants 16
Steelers at Broncos
If you think this is going to be a blowout or an absolute joke, I think you're wrong. Yes, the Broncos have lost their last three with a stagnant offense led by the struggling Tim Tebow. But the Steelers are banged up too. Big Ben's limping around, Rashard Mendenhall is out for the season and Ryan Clark can't play in the thin Denver air.
The Steelers are 8.5 point favorites but neither of these teams' styles lead you to believe this game will get outlandish. Since their week six bye, seven of Denver's games have been decided by a touchdown or less. In the past six weeks, the Steelers have notched 13-9 wins over the Browns and Chiefs. Close games but wins.
John Fox will play the kind of game he wants, one where the offense plays it close to the vest and relies on the defense, which will keep it close. However without defensive lynchpin Brian Dawkins, the Broncos will not be able to contain the Steelers enough. Don't be surprised if Tim Tebow has the ball with a chance at victory in the final minutes though. That's just how it goes this season.
Prediction: Steelers 17, Broncos 12
Full Playoff Picks
Divisional Playoffs
Ravens over Texans
Steelers over Patriots
Packers over Falcons
Saints over Niners
AFC Championship
Ravens over Steelers
NFC Championship
Saints over Packers
Super Bowl XLVI
Saints 30, Ravens 17
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