NFL Divisional Playoffs Preview and Picks

Tebowie, my friends

My friend Michael Garr tweeted following last week's games "NFL Playoffs: Chalk"

Accurate. 

All four higher seeds advanced, though Denver was an underdog winner against Pittsburgh. It's a new week with more great matchups and time to see if I can better my 2-2 record. 

Saints at 49ers
A classic contrasting styles duel. Saints with their number one offense, 49ers a top five defense. Problem for the 49ers...their defensive strength (#1 rush defense) does not combat New Orleans' offensive (#1 pass offense). In fact, the 49ers were mid-pack when it came to defending the pass this season. 

That won't be good enough to stymie Drew Brees and his weapons. To have a chance it's all about bend but don't break for the Niners defense. They do it well, 4th best in red zone defense this season. However, if the Saints don't score before they hit the 20, they usually do once inside it, converting 59 percent of the time. If San Francisco's stingy defense can hold New Orleans to field goals rather than touchdowns, they'll have a chance. But there's no way that Alex Smith can keep up with Brees in a shootout. San Francisco will hold strong defensively for awhile until Brees breaks it open late. 

Prediction: Saints 27, 49ers 17

Broncos at Patriots
Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow. Okay, just had to get that out of the way. 

In all seriousness what the Broncos and Tebow did last week was pretty damn impressive. Yes, Pittsburgh was banged up but it's hard to hate on Tebow's 316 yard performance complete with game-winning strike to Demaryius Thomas on the first play of overtime. I call it the 'Saint and the Stiff Arm.'

New England hasn't won a playoff game since the 2007 AFC Championship game. Some are starting to wonder if Brady and Belichick are no longer invincible, playoff gods that they once appeared. I'm not betting against them. 

A weak Patriots secondary can certainly be exploited by Tebow but most of his magic has come a mile high. This week it will be a bitter end in the bitter evening cold of Foxboro.


Prediction: Patriots 34, Broncos 27

Texans at Ravens
The least exciting divisional playoff matchup. Rookie QB T.J. Yates has to do battle with the fearsome Ravens defense. That alone is a recipe for disaster. 

Houston's defense created a lot of havoc and problems for Andy Dalton last week and will need to do the same to Joe Flacco. But it won't be their defense that causes their first playoff run to come to an end. Instead it will be the Ravens defense, which held Arian Foster under 50 yards rushing and kept the Texans (with Matt Schaub starting) scoreless for 21 minutes in their regular season contest, that is the deciding factor. Ray Lewis, that defense, the deafening M&T Bank Stadium crowd, it's all gonna be way too much for Yates. Foster gets shutdown early, Yates is forced to throw, trouble ensues, Ravens advance.


Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 6

Giants at Packers  
Ahh, they meet again. It's a rematch of the classic 2007 NFC Championship game. This time Tom Coughlin may want to invest in a ski mask or some face cream.  

Aaron Rodgers has been simply phenomenal, 45 touchdowns to six interceptions this season. The Packers get everyone involved with plenty of damaging weapons from Jordy Nelson to Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley, Randall Cobb and James Jones. Eli Manning can create some high octane offense of his own with Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks.

Their regular season contest was close and high scoring. These are two bottom five pass defenses and Lambeau in January or not I expect the passing game to rule. While the Giants' pass rush is menacing, the Packers have had time to prepare for it. Don't expect New York to make Rodgers and company look as silly as they did Ryan and the Falcons last week. 

In Jersey, Rodgers had the ball in the final minute with the game on the line and a shot at the win. He led the Packers into position for a game-winning field goal. This time it will be Manning in that spot-- except his night will end with the ball in the hands of a Packers defender.

Prediction: Packers 27, Giants 23